Analysis: Ruling party errors give Turkey’s opposition hope for future

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled over the country for nearly two and a half decades, undefeated. In that time, elections have largely followed a similar trajectory, each strengthening his popularity and position of authority.

But a few years ago, warning signs emerged. In the 2019 local elections, Erdogan’s AK Party lost the mayoral race in four of Turkey’s largest cities, including the biggest city, Istanbul – where Erdogan made his name as mayor in the 1990s. Then, in the most recent local elections at the end of March, the results were even worse, with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) emerging victorious again. Two days later, Turkish press outlets reported that Erdogan had told his party’s executives that the “results demonstrate not only a defeat in the election but also the loss of the party’s soul”.

He reportedly went on to say that arrogance among his party’s representatives in both the national headquarters and local branches had become “disease-like”.

The Justice and Development Party or AK Party, which began as a grassroots movement promising to break barriers between the people and the state, has evolved, with its initial anti-status quo stance, reformist ideals, and what it represents also transforming significantly.

The party has always had its opponents, particularly among the hardline secularists once regarded as the establishment in Turkey. But the phenomenon of long-time party supporters staying home will worry Erdogan and the party he founded and led for more than two decades.

The causes are multi-faceted and touch on the issues facing Turkish voters in general and in particular the AK Party’s traditional voter base in Istanbul and Turkey’s Anatolian heartland.

Not just the economy

The most obvious issue is the economy, a problem that the Turkish government has faced for a number of years, and that remains the biggest millstone around its neck, leading to widespread frustration, discontent, and grievances. Increased income inequality, runaway inflation, a rapid depreciation of the national currency, soaring costs, and a decline in the standard of living for pensioners are just some of the economic problems the Turkish people are living through, leading to widespread frustration, discontent, and grievances.

The Turkish Statistical Institute reports that in October 2022, inflation shot up to 85.5 percent, the highest level in 25 years. In the same month in 2023, it was 61.3 percent, still one of the world’s top five. Some sources, however, contend that the actual rate might be considerably higher.

Residential property prices in Turkey increased 75.52 percent in December 2023 compared to the same month in the previous year, the highest year-on-year figure in the world. The Turkish lira’s sharp decline in value has impacted businesses and employees alike, and income inequality has also increased. Forecasts indicate that nearly 10 percent of Turkey’s population will earn less than $6.85 a day in 2024, below the poverty line for upper-middle-income countries like Turkey, as defined by the World Bank.

The deteriorating economy has particularly hit the middle and lower economic classes, the bedrock of the AK Party’s support.

But there is more to the backlash against the ruling party. Many voters felt that the candidates they were being asked to support were selected based on decisions made by a disconnected party leadership, without considering the opinions and expectations of local voters. This led to disillusionment among some traditional AK Party voters who lost faith in the ability of elected officials to represent them, which caused a sizable portion to abstain from casting ballots.

CHP politicians, on the other hand, are growing ever more popular, particularly the now-re-elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, and the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas.

Election results show that both the AK Party and CHP candidates for mayor of Istanbul lost a combined 800,000 votes compared to the 2019 elections, with the AK Party shed 200,000 more votes than the CHP did.

Is this indicative of a party disconnected from its supporter base? There was an incorrect belief at party headquarters that weak candidates could be carried over the line by the AK Party’s popularity, with some top party figures ignoring information from the provinces regarding the unpopularity of the candidates, according to Turkish political sources who spoke to Al Jazeera.

Ultimately, party figures were too reliant on the personal popularity of President Erdogan. While he was heavily involved in the election campaign, touring 52 provinces in two months and holding more than 100 election rallies, Erdogan’s popularity was insufficient to persuade enough of them to overcome their reservations about the state of AK Party rule, particularly when it came to the economy.Some argue that some of the candidate selection mistakes may have come from Erdogan’s desire to avoid high-profile candidates who could turn into competitors among the president’s conservative-nationalist voters. Erdogan has largely avoided the notion of a de facto heir apparent in the party since it was established in 2001, reportedly fearing the shadow of a competitor, a fear deeply rooted in Turkish politics and history, stretching back to the Ottoman Empire.